Fukushima United vs FC Ryukyu — League #100 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Fukushima United39%
FC Ryukyu34%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 8 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fukushima United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fukushima United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches
FC Ryukyu away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fukushima United attack 1.25 + FC Ryukyu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29
FC Ryukyu attack 1.00 + Fukushima United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Fukushima United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Fukushima United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Kamatamare Sanuki
Vanraure Hachinohe
Kanazawa
Kitakyushu
FC Gifu
Gainare TottoriFukushima UnitedFC Ryukyu
Osaka
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Nara Club
Sagamihara
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Matsumoto Yamaga
Parceiro Nagano
Kochi United
Tochigi SC
Kagoshima United
Azul Claro NumazuIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fukushima United host FC Ryukyu on Saturday, 17 August 2024 at 09:00. The match is part of the League #100 2026/2027 season.
Fukushima United 0 – 1 FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu beat Fukushima United 1-0 in League #100 on August 17, 2024.
Goals: K. Takezawa (90+2').
The match was played at TOHO Stadium in Fukushima.