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Fujieda MYFC vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Fujieda MYFC
Fujieda MYFC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
4/20/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 11Fujieda City General Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Fujieda MYFC33%
×Draw28%
Tokushima Vortis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fujieda MYFC
1.14
Tokushima Vortis
1.27

Tokushima Vortis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 147 away

creates per match

Fujieda MYFC
1.25
Tokushima Vortis
1.19

allows per match

Fujieda MYFC
1.36
Tokushima Vortis
1.02

finishing

Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fujieda MYFC ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fujieda MYFC or draw
61%
Fujieda MYFC or Tokushima Vortis
72%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
67%

Winning margin

Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+
13%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals
68%
Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals
32%
Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals
11%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
72%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
36%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)
46%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fujieda MYFC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.25 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fujieda MYFC scores more
33%
level
28%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
39%

Tokushima Vortis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Fujieda MYFC 0–1 Tokushima Vortis

Tokushima Vortis beat Fujieda MYFC 1-0 in J2 League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Fujieda City General Sports Park in Fujieda.