Argentina 3–1 Mexico: Result & Stats | World Cup

Argentina

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Mexico

C. Tevez 52', 26'

G. Higuaín 33'

J. Hernández 71'

6/27/2010

World Cup · 8th FinalsFNB Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Argentina49%

×Draw25%

Mexico26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArgentinaExpected goals in this matchMexico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.13

Argentina

1.63

Mexico

1.13

Argentina creates 44% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Argentina

2.00

Mexico

1.25

allows per match

Argentina

1.00

Mexico

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Argentina+0.00on par

Mexico+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentina ↓

Mexico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Argentina or draw

74%

Argentina or Mexico

75%

Draw or Mexico

51%

Winning margin

Argentina wins by 2+

26%

Mexico wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Argentina 1+ goals

80%

Argentina 2+ goals

48%

Argentina 3+ goals

22%

Mexico 1+ goals

68%

Mexico 2+ goals

31%

Mexico 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Argentina (draw refunded)

65%

Mexico (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentina at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Mexico away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentina attack 2.00 + Mexico defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Mexico attack 1.25 + Argentina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Argentina scores more

49%

level

25%

Mexico scores more

26%

Argentina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Argentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

C. Tevez↳ L. Messi

33'

G. Higuaín

46'

P. Barrera← A. Bautista

52'

C. Tevez

61'

G. Franco← A. Guardado

69'

J. Verón← C. Tevez

71'

J. Hernández↳ G. Torrado

79'

J. Gutiérrez← Á. Di María

87'

J. Pastore← M. Rodríguez

Argentina

Mexico

1

4

2

3

16

5

18

▼

Guardado

6

A

Torrado

21

▼

Bautista

17

Santos

14

⚽

22

4

6

14

2

15

7

▼

María

10

A

Messi

20

▼

Rodríguez

11

⚽2

▼

Tevez

9

⚽

Higuaín

Manager: D. Maradona

69'▲J. Verón←▼C. Tevez

79'▲J. Gutiérrez←▼Á. Di María

87'▲J. Pastore←▼M. Rodríguez

Argentina substitutes

8Verón17Gutiérrez23Pastore12Garcé3Rodríguez19Milito1Pozo21Andújar5Bolatti18Palermo13Samuel16Agüero

Manager: J. Aguirre

46'▲P. Barrera←▼A. Bautista

61'▲G. Franco←▼A. Guardado

Mexico substitutes

7Barrera9Franco22Medina10Blanco11Vela13Ochoa15Moreno8Castro19Magallón20Torres23Michel12Aguilar