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Fügen vs SV Innsbruck — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Fügen
Fügen
FT
2 – 0
SV Innsbruck
SV Innsbruck
10/2/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 10Sportplatz Fügen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Fügen54%
×Draw20%
SV Innsbruck26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fügen
2.42
SV Innsbruck
1.65

Fügen creates 47% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 27 away

creates per match

Fügen
2.73
SV Innsbruck
1.70

allows per match

Fügen
1.59
SV Innsbruck
2.11

finishing

Fügen+0.00on par
SV Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fügen ↓

SV Innsbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Fügen or draw
74%
Fügen or SV Innsbruck
80%
Draw or SV Innsbruck
46%

Winning margin

Fügen wins by 2+
34%
SV Innsbruck wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fügen 1+ goals
91%
Fügen 2+ goals
69%
Fügen 3+ goals
43%
SV Innsbruck 1+ goals
81%
SV Innsbruck 2+ goals
49%
SV Innsbruck 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fügen (draw refunded)
68%
SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fügen at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

SV Innsbruck away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fügen attack 2.73 + SV Innsbruck defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.42

SV Innsbruck attack 1.70 + Fügen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fügen scores more
54%
level
20%
SV Innsbruck scores more
26%

Fügen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fügen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fügen vs SV Innsbruck

Fügen beat SV Innsbruck 2-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 2, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Fügen in Fügen.