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Fügen vs St. Johann in Tirol — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Fügen
Fügen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
St. Johann in Tirol
St. Johann in Tirol
11/2/2024Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 13Sportplatz Fügen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Fügen48%
×Draw21%
St. Johann in Tirol31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fügen
2.17
St. Johann in Tirol
1.74

Fügen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 85 away

creates per match

Fügen
2.73
St. Johann in Tirol
1.89

allows per match

Fügen
1.59
St. Johann in Tirol
1.61

finishing

Fügen+0.00on par
St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fügen ↓

St. Johann in Tirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Fügen or draw
69%
Fügen or St. Johann in Tirol
79%
Draw or St. Johann in Tirol
52%

Winning margin

Fügen wins by 2+
28%
St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fügen 1+ goals
89%
Fügen 2+ goals
64%
Fügen 3+ goals
36%
St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals
82%
St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals
52%
St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Fügen (draw refunded)
60%
St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fügen at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

St. Johann in Tirol away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fügen attack 2.73 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.17

St. Johann in Tirol attack 1.89 + Fügen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fügen scores more
48%
level
21%
St. Johann in Tirol scores more
31%

Fügen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fügen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fügen vs St. Johann in Tirol

St. Johann in Tirol beat Fügen 2-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Fügen in Fügen.