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Fuerza Amarilla vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2018

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
8/18/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 22Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla29%
×Draw25%
Tecnico Universitario46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.20
Tecnico Universitario
1.56

Tecnico Universitario creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 129 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.00
Tecnico Universitario
0.86

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
2.27
Tecnico Universitario
1.40

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
54%
Fuerza Amarilla or Tecnico Universitario
75%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
71%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
12%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
70%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
34%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
12%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
79%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
46%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
39%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.00 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
29%
level
25%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
46%

Tecnico Universitario at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Fuerza Amarilla 2–2 Tecnico Universitario

Fuerza Amarilla and Tecnico Universitario drew 2-2 in Liga Pro on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).