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Fuerza Amarilla vs LDU Portoviejo — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
5/19/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 13Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla43%
×Draw29%
LDU Portoviejo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.24
LDU Portoviejo
0.93

Fuerza Amarilla creates 33% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 69 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.19
LDU Portoviejo
0.91

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
0.94
LDU Portoviejo
1.29

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

LDU Portoviejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
72%
Fuerza Amarilla or LDU Portoviejo
71%
Draw or LDU Portoviejo
57%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
19%
LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
71%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
35%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
13%
LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
61%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
24%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
61%
LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

LDU Portoviejo away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.19 + LDU Portoviejo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

LDU Portoviejo attack 0.91 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
43%
level
29%
LDU Portoviejo scores more
28%

Fuerza Amarilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fuerza Amarilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Fuerza Amarilla 1–1 LDU Portoviejo

Fuerza Amarilla and LDU Portoviejo drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).