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Fuerza Amarilla vs Clan Juvenil — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
2 – 1
Clan Juvenil
Clan Juvenil
9/23/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 33Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla59%
×Draw24%
Clan Juvenil17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.71
Clan Juvenil
0.79

Fuerza Amarilla creates 116% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 40 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.19
Clan Juvenil
0.65

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
0.94
Clan Juvenil
2.23

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
Clan Juvenil+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Clan Juvenil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
83%
Fuerza Amarilla or Clan Juvenil
76%
Draw or Clan Juvenil
41%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
33%
Clan Juvenil wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
82%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
51%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
24%
Clan Juvenil 1+ goals
55%
Clan Juvenil 2+ goals
19%
Clan Juvenil 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
78%
Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Clan Juvenil away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.19 + Clan Juvenil defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.71

Clan Juvenil attack 0.65 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
59%
level
24%
Clan Juvenil scores more
17%

Fuerza Amarilla at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fuerza Amarilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Fuerza Amarilla 2–1 Clan Juvenil

Fuerza Amarilla beat Clan Juvenil 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).