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Fuerza Amarilla vs CD Olmedo — Liga Pro 2018

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
2/23/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 3Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla38%
×Draw23%
CD Olmedo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.67
CD Olmedo
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.00
CD Olmedo
1.13

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
2.27
CD Olmedo
2.33

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

CD Olmedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
61%
Fuerza Amarilla or CD Olmedo
77%
Draw or CD Olmedo
62%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
19%
CD Olmedo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
81%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
50%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
23%
CD Olmedo 1+ goals
82%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
51%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
49%
CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.00 + CD Olmedo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

CD Olmedo attack 1.13 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
38%
level
23%
CD Olmedo scores more
39%

CD Olmedo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fuerza Amarilla vs CD Olmedo

CD Olmedo beat Fuerza Amarilla 4-1 in Liga Pro on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.