Fuerza Amarilla 1–1 America de Quito

Fuerza Amarilla

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

America de Quito

7/15/2018

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 22Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla42%

×Draw29%

America de Quito30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fuerza AmarillaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.99

Fuerza Amarilla

1.23

America de Quito

0.99

Fuerza Amarilla creates 24% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 85 away

1.19

creates per match

1.05

0.94

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla

1.19

America de Quito

1.05

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla

0.94

America de Quito

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

America de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw

70%

Fuerza Amarilla or America de Quito

71%

Draw or America de Quito

58%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+

18%

America de Quito wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals

71%

Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals

35%

Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals

13%

America de Quito 1+ goals

63%

America de Quito 2+ goals

26%

America de Quito 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)

58%

America de Quito (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

America de Quito away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.19 + America de Quito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

America de Quito attack 1.05 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more

42%

level

29%

America de Quito scores more

30%

Fuerza Amarilla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fuerza Amarilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff