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America de Quito vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
3/1/2020Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 1Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Albornoz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

America de Quito46%
×Draw29%
Fuerza Amarilla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.25
Fuerza Amarilla
0.85

America de Quito creates 47% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 31 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.48
Fuerza Amarilla
0.87

allows per match

America de Quito
0.84
Fuerza Amarilla
1.03

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
75%
America de Quito or Fuerza Amarilla
71%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
54%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
21%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
71%
America de Quito 2+ goals
36%
America de Quito 3+ goals
13%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
57%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
21%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
64%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.87 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

America de Quito scores more
46%
level
29%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
25%

America de Quito at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: America de Quito 2–1 Fuerza Amarilla

America de Quito beat Fuerza Amarilla 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Albornoz in Cayambe.