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Fuentes vs La Almunia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Fuentes
Fuentes
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Almunia
La Almunia
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 32Campo de fútbol San Miguel de Fuentes de Ebro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fuentes33%
×Draw29%
La Almunia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuentes
1.04
La Almunia
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Fuentes
0.82
La Almunia
0.96

allows per match

Fuentes
1.29
La Almunia
1.27

finishing

Fuentes+0.00on par
La Almunia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuentes ↓

La Almunia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fuentes or draw
62%
Fuentes or La Almunia
71%
Draw or La Almunia
67%

Winning margin

Fuentes wins by 2+
13%
La Almunia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fuentes 1+ goals
65%
Fuentes 2+ goals
28%
Fuentes 3+ goals
9%
La Almunia 1+ goals
68%
La Almunia 2+ goals
31%
La Almunia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fuentes (draw refunded)
47%
La Almunia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuentes at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

La Almunia away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuentes attack 0.82 + La Almunia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

La Almunia attack 0.96 + Fuentes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fuentes scores more
33%
level
29%
La Almunia scores more
38%

La Almunia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "La Almunia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fuentes vs La Almunia

Fuentes and La Almunia drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol San Miguel de Fuentes de Ebro in Fuentes de Ebro.