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Fuentes vs CDJ Tamarite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Fuentes
Fuentes
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
CDJ Tamarite
CDJ Tamarite
1/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 16Campo de fútbol San Miguel de Fuentes de Ebro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fuentes40%
×Draw27%
CDJ Tamarite33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuentes
1.31
CDJ Tamarite
1.17

Fuentes creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 98 away

creates per match

Fuentes
0.82
CDJ Tamarite
1.05

allows per match

Fuentes
1.29
CDJ Tamarite
1.81

finishing

Fuentes+0.00on par
CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuentes ↓

CDJ Tamarite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fuentes or draw
67%
Fuentes or CDJ Tamarite
73%
Draw or CDJ Tamarite
60%

Winning margin

Fuentes wins by 2+
18%
CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fuentes 1+ goals
73%
Fuentes 2+ goals
38%
Fuentes 3+ goals
14%
CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals
69%
CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals
33%
CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fuentes (draw refunded)
55%
CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuentes at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuentes attack 0.82 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Fuentes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fuentes scores more
40%
level
27%
CDJ Tamarite scores more
33%

Fuentes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fuentes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Fuentes 1–3 CDJ Tamarite

CDJ Tamarite beat Fuentes 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol San Miguel de Fuentes de Ebro in Fuentes de Ebro.