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Fuente Cantos vs Trujillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Trujillo
Trujillo
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 9Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Fuente Cantos35%
×Draw28%
Trujillo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuente Cantos
1.14
Trujillo
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 92 away

creates per match

Fuente Cantos
0.90
Trujillo
1.03

allows per match

Fuente Cantos
1.30
Trujillo
1.37

finishing

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par
Trujillo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuente Cantos ↓

Trujillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fuente Cantos or draw
63%
Fuente Cantos or Trujillo
72%
Draw or Trujillo
65%

Winning margin

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
14%
Trujillo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
68%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
32%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
11%
Trujillo 1+ goals
69%
Trujillo 2+ goals
33%
Trujillo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
49%
Trujillo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuente Cantos at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Trujillo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuente Cantos attack 0.90 + Trujillo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Trujillo attack 1.03 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fuente Cantos scores more
35%
level
28%
Trujillo scores more
37%

Trujillo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Fuente Cantos 0–2 Trujillo

Trujillo beat Fuente Cantos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán in Fuente de Cantos.