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Fuente Cantos vs Moralo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moralo
Moralo
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 5Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Fuente Cantos30%
×Draw27%
Moralo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuente Cantos
1.06
Moralo
1.34

Moralo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 111 away

creates per match

Fuente Cantos
0.90
Moralo
1.39

allows per match

Fuente Cantos
1.30
Moralo
1.23

finishing

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par
Moralo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuente Cantos ↓

Moralo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fuente Cantos or draw
57%
Fuente Cantos or Moralo
73%
Draw or Moralo
70%

Winning margin

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
11%
Moralo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
65%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
29%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
9%
Moralo 1+ goals
74%
Moralo 2+ goals
39%
Moralo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
41%
Moralo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuente Cantos at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Moralo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuente Cantos attack 0.90 + Moralo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Moralo attack 1.39 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fuente Cantos scores more
30%
level
27%
Moralo scores more
43%

Moralo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Fuente Cantos 1–1 Moralo

Fuente Cantos and Moralo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán in Fuente de Cantos.