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Fuente Cantos vs Montijo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Montijo
Montijo
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 24Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Fuente Cantos32%
×Draw28%
Montijo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuente Cantos
1.07
Montijo
1.21

Montijo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

creates per match

Fuente Cantos
0.90
Montijo
1.12

allows per match

Fuente Cantos
1.30
Montijo
1.25

finishing

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par
Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuente Cantos ↓

Montijo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fuente Cantos or draw
61%
Fuente Cantos or Montijo
72%
Draw or Montijo
68%

Winning margin

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
13%
Montijo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
66%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
29%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
9%
Montijo 1+ goals
70%
Montijo 2+ goals
34%
Montijo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
45%
Montijo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuente Cantos at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Montijo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuente Cantos attack 0.90 + Montijo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Montijo attack 1.12 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fuente Cantos scores more
32%
level
28%
Montijo scores more
39%

Montijo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Montijo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fuente Cantos vs Montijo

Montijo beat Fuente Cantos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán in Fuente de Cantos.