Fuente Cantos 3–1 Lobón: Result & Stats

Fuente Cantos

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Lobón

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fuente Cantos53%

×Draw25%

Lobón22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fuente CantosExpected goals in this matchLobón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.92

Fuente Cantos

1.58

Lobón

0.92

Fuente Cantos creates 72% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

0.90

creates per match

0.53

1.30

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Fuente Cantos

0.90

Lobón

0.53

allows per match

Fuente Cantos

1.30

Lobón

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Lobón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuente Cantos ↓

Lobón →

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fuente Cantos or draw

78%

Fuente Cantos or Lobón

75%

Draw or Lobón

47%

Winning margin

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+

28%

Lobón wins by 2+

Team goals

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals

79%

Fuente Cantos 2+ goals

47%

Fuente Cantos 3+ goals

21%

Lobón 1+ goals

60%

Lobón 2+ goals

23%

Lobón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)

71%

Lobón (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fuente Cantos at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Lobón away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fuente Cantos attack 0.90 + Lobón defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.58

Lobón attack 0.53 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fuente Cantos scores more

53%

level

25%

Lobón scores more

22%

Fuente Cantos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fuente Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff