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Fuente Cantos vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 15Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Fuente Cantos34%
×Draw29%
Extremadura UD II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuente Cantos
1.07
Extremadura UD II
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 42 away

creates per match

Fuente Cantos
0.90
Extremadura UD II
0.93

allows per match

Fuente Cantos
1.30
Extremadura UD II
1.24

finishing

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par
Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuente Cantos ↓

Extremadura UD II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fuente Cantos or draw
64%
Fuente Cantos or Extremadura UD II
71%
Draw or Extremadura UD II
66%

Winning margin

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
13%
Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
66%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
29%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
9%
Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
67%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
30%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
49%
Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuente Cantos at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuente Cantos attack 0.90 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fuente Cantos scores more
34%
level
29%
Extremadura UD II scores more
36%

Extremadura UD II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Extremadura UD II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Fuente Cantos 1–3 Extremadura UD II

Extremadura UD II beat Fuente Cantos 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán in Fuente de Cantos.