Fuente Cantos 1–3 Diocesano: Result & Stats

Fuente Cantos

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Diocesano

10/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 7Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Fuente Cantos31%

×Draw27%

Diocesano42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fuente CantosExpected goals in this matchDiocesano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.36

Fuente Cantos

1.14

Diocesano

1.36

Diocesano creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 93 away

0.90

creates per match

1.42

1.30

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Fuente Cantos

0.90

Diocesano

1.42

allows per match

Fuente Cantos

1.30

Diocesano

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Diocesano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuente Cantos ↓

Diocesano →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fuente Cantos or draw

58%

Fuente Cantos or Diocesano

73%

Draw or Diocesano

69%

Winning margin

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+

13%

Diocesano wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals

68%

Fuente Cantos 2+ goals

32%

Fuente Cantos 3+ goals

11%

Diocesano 1+ goals

74%

Diocesano 2+ goals

39%

Diocesano 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)

43%

Diocesano (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fuente Cantos at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Diocesano away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fuente Cantos attack 0.90 + Diocesano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Diocesano attack 1.42 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fuente Cantos scores more

31%

level

27%

Diocesano scores more

42%

Diocesano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff