Free State Stars vs Baroka FC — Premier Soccer League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Free State Stars44%
Baroka FC27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Free State Stars creates 38% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 67 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Free State Stars ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Free State Stars at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches
Baroka FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.40 · 67 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Free State Stars attack 1.03 + Baroka FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21
Baroka FC attack 0.73 + Free State Stars defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Free State Stars at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Free State Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Free State Stars host Baroka FC on Saturday, 3 February 2018 at 13:30. The match is part of the Premier Soccer League 2018/2019 season.
Free State Stars 2 – 0 Baroka FC
Free State Stars beat Baroka FC 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on February 3, 2018.
Goals: G. Dlamini (33'), S. Mthembu (67').
The match was played at Goble Park Stadium (Bethlehem, FS).