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Fuenlabrada vs Sevilla Atletico — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
3/23/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fuenlabrada49%
×Draw28%
Sevilla Atletico22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuenlabrada
1.34
Sevilla Atletico
0.80

Fuenlabrada creates 68% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Fuenlabrada
1.16
Sevilla Atletico
0.65

allows per match

Fuenlabrada
0.95
Sevilla Atletico
1.53

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par
Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Sevilla Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw
78%
Fuenlabrada or Sevilla Atletico
72%
Draw or Sevilla Atletico
51%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
24%
Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
74%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
39%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
15%
Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
55%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
19%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
69%
Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.16 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.65 + Fuenlabrada defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more
49%
level
28%
Sevilla Atletico scores more
22%

Fuenlabrada at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Fuenlabrada 0–1 Sevilla Atletico

Sevilla Atletico beat Fuenlabrada 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Torres in Fuenlabrada.