Fuenlabrada 4–1 Osasuna II: Result & Stats

Fuenlabrada

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Osasuna II

11/12/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fuenlabrada43%

×Draw29%

Osasuna II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FuenlabradaExpected goals in this matchOsasuna II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.96

Fuenlabrada

1.26

Osasuna II

0.96

Fuenlabrada creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 57 away

1.08

creates per match

1.05

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Fuenlabrada

1.08

Osasuna II

1.05

allows per match

Fuenlabrada

0.86

Osasuna II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Osasuna II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw

72%

Fuenlabrada or Osasuna II

71%

Draw or Osasuna II

57%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

19%

Osasuna II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

72%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

36%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

13%

Osasuna II 1+ goals

62%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

25%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

60%

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.08 + Osasuna II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.26

Osasuna II attack 1.05 + Fuenlabrada defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more

43%

level

29%

Osasuna II scores more

28%

Fuenlabrada at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff