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Fuenlabrada vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
10/1/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fuenlabrada46%
×Draw27%
Linares Deportivo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuenlabrada
1.40
Linares Deportivo
1.01

Fuenlabrada creates 39% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fuenlabrada
1.08
Linares Deportivo
1.17

allows per match

Fuenlabrada
0.86
Linares Deportivo
1.72

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw
73%
Fuenlabrada or Linares Deportivo
73%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
54%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
22%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
75%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
41%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
17%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
64%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
27%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
63%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.08 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.40

Linares Deportivo attack 1.17 + Fuenlabrada defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more
46%
level
27%
Linares Deportivo scores more
27%

Fuenlabrada at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fuenlabrada vs Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Fuenlabrada 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Torres in Fuenlabrada.