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CS Universitatea Craiova vs RB Leipzig — UEFA Europa League 2018

CS Universitatea Craiova
CS Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
8/16/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova31%
×Draw25%
RB Leipzig44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.22
RB Leipzig
1.50

RB Leipzig creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.33
RB Leipzig
1.33

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.67
RB Leipzig
1.11

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
RB Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

RB Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw
56%
CS Universitatea Craiova or RB Leipzig
75%
Draw or RB Leipzig
69%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
13%
RB Leipzig wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
70%
CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
34%
CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
12%
RB Leipzig 1+ goals
78%
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
44%
RB Leipzig 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
41%
RB Leipzig (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.33 + RB Leipzig defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

RB Leipzig attack 1.33 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more
31%
level
25%
RB Leipzig scores more
44%

RB Leipzig at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RB Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: CS Universitatea Craiova 1–1 RB Leipzig

CS Universitatea Craiova and RB Leipzig drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa League on August 16, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco in Craiova.