FSV Zwickau vs BSG Chemie Leipzig — League #85 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
FSV Zwickau48%
BSG Chemie Leipzig24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FSV Zwickau creates 55% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FSV Zwickau ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FSV Zwickau at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches
BSG Chemie Leipzig away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FSV Zwickau attack 1.40 + BSG Chemie Leipzig defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32
BSG Chemie Leipzig attack 0.50 + FSV Zwickau defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
FSV Zwickau at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "FSV Zwickau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
BFC Preussen
SV Babelsberg 03
Hallescher FC
Magdeburg II
Altglienicke
BFC DynamoFSV Zwickau
Luckenwalde
Greifswalder FC
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
Hertha BSC II
Hertha Zehlendorf
Lokomotive Leipzig
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
ZFC Meuselwitz
Chemnitzer FCBSG Chemie Leipzig
EilenburgIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FSV Zwickau host BSG Chemie Leipzig on Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 12:00. The match is part of the League #85 2026/2027 season.
League #85: FSV Zwickau 1–1 BSG Chemie Leipzig
FSV Zwickau and BSG Chemie Leipzig drew 1-1 in League #85 on May 11, 2025.
Goals: J. Mäder (6'), M. Zimmermann (14').
The match was played at GGZ Arena in Zwickau.