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FSV Zwickau vs BFC Preussen — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

FSV Zwickau
FSV Zwickau
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
L. Mobius 69'
4/17/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 30GGZ-Arena Zwickau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FSV Zwickau32%
×Draw27%
BFC Preussen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Zwickau
1.14
BFC Preussen
1.33

BFC Preussen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

FSV Zwickau
1.11
BFC Preussen
1.67

allows per match

FSV Zwickau
1.00
BFC Preussen
1.17

finishing

FSV Zwickau+0.00on par
BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Zwickau ↓

BFC Preussen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FSV Zwickau or draw
59%
FSV Zwickau or BFC Preussen
73%
Draw or BFC Preussen
68%

Winning margin

FSV Zwickau wins by 2+
13%
BFC Preussen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FSV Zwickau 1+ goals
68%
FSV Zwickau 2+ goals
32%
FSV Zwickau 3+ goals
11%
BFC Preussen 1+ goals
74%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
38%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FSV Zwickau (draw refunded)
44%
BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Zwickau at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Zwickau attack 1.11 + BFC Preussen defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

BFC Preussen attack 1.67 + FSV Zwickau defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FSV Zwickau scores more
32%
level
27%
BFC Preussen scores more
41%

BFC Preussen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BFC Preussen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
L. Mobius
90+2'
L. Sommerfeld
90+2'
L. Sommerfeld

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FSV Zwickau vs BFC Preussen

FSV Zwickau beat BFC Preussen 1-0 in Regionalliga - Nordost on April 17, 2026.

Goals: L. Mobius (69').

The match was played at GGZ-Arena Zwickau in Zwickau.