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FSV Zwickau vs Altglienicke — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

FSV Zwickau
FSV Zwickau
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Altglienicke
Altglienicke
M. Somnitz 81'
C. Sezer 17'
E. Tallig 86'
J. Nietfeld 52'
2/28/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 24GGZ-Arena Zwickau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FSV Zwickau27%
×Draw26%
Altglienicke47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Zwickau
1.06
Altglienicke
1.50

Altglienicke creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

FSV Zwickau
1.11
Altglienicke
2.00

allows per match

FSV Zwickau
1.00
Altglienicke
1.00

finishing

FSV Zwickau+0.00on par
Altglienicke+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Zwickau ↓

Altglienicke →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FSV Zwickau or draw
53%
FSV Zwickau or Altglienicke
74%
Draw or Altglienicke
73%

Winning margin

FSV Zwickau wins by 2+
10%
Altglienicke wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FSV Zwickau 1+ goals
65%
FSV Zwickau 2+ goals
29%
FSV Zwickau 3+ goals
9%
Altglienicke 1+ goals
78%
Altglienicke 2+ goals
44%
Altglienicke 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FSV Zwickau (draw refunded)
36%
Altglienicke (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Zwickau at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Altglienicke away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Zwickau attack 1.11 + Altglienicke defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Altglienicke attack 2.00 + FSV Zwickau defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FSV Zwickau scores more
27%
level
26%
Altglienicke scores more
47%

Altglienicke at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Altglienicke will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
C. Sezer
52'
J. Nietfeld
81'
M. Somnitz
86'
E. Tallig

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FSV Zwickau vs Altglienicke

FSV Zwickau and Altglienicke drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Nordost on February 28, 2026.

Goals: C. Sezer (17'), J. Nietfeld (52'), M. Somnitz (81'), E. Tallig (86').

The match was played at GGZ-Arena Zwickau in Zwickau.