FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Werder Bremen: Result & Stats

FSV Mainz 05

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Werder Bremen

N. Weiper 90+3'

L. Ajorque 85'

N. Füllkrug 90+5'

J. Stage 87'

4/8/2023

Bundesliga · Round 27MEWA ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

FSV Mainz 0550%

×Draw24%

Werder Bremen26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Mainz 05Expected goals in this matchWerder Bremen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.21

FSV Mainz 05

1.76

Werder Bremen

1.21

FSV Mainz 05 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 35 away

1.68

creates per match

1.05

1.36

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

FSV Mainz 05

1.68

Werder Bremen

1.05

allows per match

FSV Mainz 05

1.36

Werder Bremen

1.84

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

FSV Mainz 05-0.25scores less

Werder Bremen+0.06on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Mainz 05 ↓

Werder Bremen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FSV Mainz 05 or draw

74%

FSV Mainz 05 or Werder Bremen

76%

Draw or Werder Bremen

50%

Winning margin

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

27%

Werder Bremen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

83%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

52%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

26%

Werder Bremen 1+ goals

70%

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

34%

Werder Bremen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

66%

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Mainz 05 at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.36 · 28 matches

Werder Bremen away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.84 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.68 + Werder Bremen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.76

Werder Bremen attack 1.05 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

50%

level

24%

Werder Bremen scores more

26%

FSV Mainz 05 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Pavlenka

Werder Bremen · G

8.3

Match Events

28'

Christian Groß

42'

Jens Stage

58'

Lee Jae-Sung← L. Barreiro

58'

K. Onisiwo← M. Ingvartsen

59'

62'

63'

65'

73'

R. Schmid← L. Bittencourt

73'

M. Philipp← M. Ducksch

81'

Ilia Gruev

83'

Niklas Stark

85'

L. Ajorque↳ S. Widmer

87'

D. da Costa← S. Widmer

87'

N. Weiper← L. Ajorque

87'

J. Stage

90+3'

N. Weiper

90+5'

N. Füllkrug

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FSVWerder

Overview

50%Possession50%

16Total Shots9

1.47Expected Goals (xG)0.97

1Corners2

11Fouls22

Shots

16Total Shots9

10On Target4

3Off Target5

3Blocked0

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

458Total Passes461

325Accurate Passes336

71%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls22

1Yellow Cards5

3Offsides1