FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats

FSV Mainz 05

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fiorentina

11/6/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Mewa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FSV Mainz 0551%

×Draw24%

Fiorentina25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Mainz 05Expected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.09

FSV Mainz 05

1.66

Fiorentina

1.09

FSV Mainz 05 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

2.17

creates per match

1.85

0.33

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

FSV Mainz 05

2.17

Fiorentina

1.85

allows per match

FSV Mainz 05

0.33

Fiorentina

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Mainz 05 ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FSV Mainz 05 or draw

75%

FSV Mainz 05 or Fiorentina

76%

Draw or Fiorentina

49%

Winning margin

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

27%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

81%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

49%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

23%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

66%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

30%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

67%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Mainz 05 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Mainz 05 attack 2.17 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.66

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

51%

level

24%

Fiorentina scores more

25%

FSV Mainz 05 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff