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FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
FT
2 – 1
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
7/9/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3MEWA ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FSV Mainz 0546%
×Draw21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Mainz 05
2.05
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.72

FSV Mainz 05 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

FSV Mainz 05
2.00
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.44

allows per match

FSV Mainz 05
1.00
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.11

finishing

FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Mainz 05 ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

FSV Mainz 05 or draw
67%
FSV Mainz 05 or FC Wurzburger Kickers
79%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
54%

Winning margin

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+
26%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals
87%
FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
61%
FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals
33%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
82%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
51%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)
58%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Mainz 05 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.44, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Mainz 05 attack 2.00 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.44 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FSV Mainz 05 scores more
46%
level
21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
33%

FSV Mainz 05 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: FSV Mainz 05 2–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers

FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2021.

The match was played at MEWA ARENA in Mainz.