FSV Frankfurt vs Würzburger Kickers

FSV Frankfurt

CANC

13:00

Würzburger Kickers

1/31/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FSV Frankfurt63%

×Draw17%

Würzburger Kickers20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV FrankfurtExpected goals in this matchWürzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.89

1.63

FSV Frankfurt

2.89

Würzburger Kickers

1.63

FSV Frankfurt creates 77% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

3.40

creates per match

2.25

1.00

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

FSV Frankfurt

3.40

Würzburger Kickers

2.25

allows per match

FSV Frankfurt

1.00

Würzburger Kickers

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Frankfurt+0.00on par

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Frankfurt ↓

Würzburger Kickers →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

FSV Frankfurt or draw

80%

FSV Frankfurt or Würzburger Kickers

83%

Draw or Würzburger Kickers

37%

Winning margin

FSV Frankfurt wins by 2+

43%

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+

Team goals

FSV Frankfurt 1+ goals

94%

FSV Frankfurt 2+ goals

78%

FSV Frankfurt 3+ goals

54%

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals

80%

Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals

48%

Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FSV Frankfurt (draw refunded)

76%

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FSV Frankfurt at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Würzburger Kickers away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FSV Frankfurt attack 3.40 + Würzburger Kickers defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.89

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.25 + FSV Frankfurt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

FSV Frankfurt scores more

63%

level

17%

Würzburger Kickers scores more

20%

FSV Frankfurt at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FSV Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff