Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FSV Frankfurt vs Düren Merzenich — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FSV Frankfurt
FSV Frankfurt
CANC
13:00
Düren Merzenich
Düren Merzenich
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3PSD Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FSV Frankfurt64%
×Draw19%
Düren Merzenich18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Frankfurt
2.37
Düren Merzenich
1.17

FSV Frankfurt creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

FSV Frankfurt
3.40
Düren Merzenich
1.33

allows per match

FSV Frankfurt
1.00
Düren Merzenich
1.33

finishing

FSV Frankfurt+0.00on par
Düren Merzenich+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Frankfurt ↓

Düren Merzenich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FSV Frankfurt or draw
82%
FSV Frankfurt or Düren Merzenich
81%
Draw or Düren Merzenich
36%

Winning margin

FSV Frankfurt wins by 2+
41%
Düren Merzenich wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FSV Frankfurt 1+ goals
91%
FSV Frankfurt 2+ goals
68%
FSV Frankfurt 3+ goals
42%
Düren Merzenich 1+ goals
69%
Düren Merzenich 2+ goals
33%
Düren Merzenich 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FSV Frankfurt (draw refunded)
78%
Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Frankfurt at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Düren Merzenich away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Frankfurt attack 3.40 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

Düren Merzenich attack 1.33 + FSV Frankfurt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FSV Frankfurt scores more
64%
level
19%
Düren Merzenich scores more
18%

FSV Frankfurt at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FSV Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FSV Frankfurt host Düren Merzenich

January 20, 2024: FSV Frankfurt take on Düren Merzenich in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FSV Frankfurt host Düren Merzenich at PSD Bank Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.