FSV Frankfurt U19 2–1 Karlsruher SC U19

FSV Frankfurt U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Karlsruher SC U19

M. Mahmudov 65'

M. Weinhardt 30'

M. Batmaz 18'

5/12/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 26PSD Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FSV Frankfurt U1933%

×Draw22%

Karlsruher SC U1945%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Frankfurt U19Expected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.85

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.56

Karlsruher SC U19

1.85

Karlsruher SC U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 74 away

1.52

creates per match

1.73

1.97

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.52

Karlsruher SC U19

1.73

allows per match

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.97

Karlsruher SC U19

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Frankfurt U19 ↓

Karlsruher SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

FSV Frankfurt U19 or draw

55%

FSV Frankfurt U19 or Karlsruher SC U19

78%

Draw or Karlsruher SC U19

67%

Winning margin

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

16%

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

79%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

46%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

21%

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

84%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

55%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Frankfurt U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Karlsruher SC U19 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.52 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 1.73 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

33%

level

22%

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

45%

Karlsruher SC U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

M. Batmaz

30'

M. Weinhardt

62'

J. Hoffmann← N. Singelmann

62'

J. Schmidtke← T. Herm

65'

M. Mahmudov

66'

K. Pinho← Rodrigo Tiago

69'

M. Schäfer← I. Hoffmann

69'

M. Trkulja← E. Jansen

72'

L. Weiser← İ. Aral

74'

L. Schneider← M. Weinhardt

FSV

Karlsruher

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Weinhardt

Manager: H. Sünal

66'▲K. Pinho←▼Rodrigo Tiago

72'▲L. Weiser←▼İ. Aral

74'▲L. Schneider←▼M. Weinhardt

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

PinhoWeiserSchneiderAmoahSchreiber

Manager: Z. Bajramović

62'▲J. Hoffmann←▼N. Singelmann

62'▲J. Schmidtke←▼T. Herm

69'▲M. Schäfer←▼I. Hoffmann

69'▲M. Trkulja←▼E. Jansen

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

HoffmannSchmidtkeSchäferTrkuljaAygünMaiMeier