Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FSV Duisburg vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
12/11/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 21Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

FSV Duisburg38%
×Draw22%
TVD Velbert40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Duisburg
1.72
TVD Velbert
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 72 away

creates per match

FSV Duisburg
1.38
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

FSV Duisburg
2.17
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw
60%
FSV Duisburg or TVD Velbert
78%
Draw or TVD Velbert
62%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
19%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
82%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
51%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
25%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
83%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
53%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
49%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.72

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more
38%
level
22%
TVD Velbert scores more
40%

TVD Velbert at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TVD Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FSV Duisburg vs TVD Velbert

TVD Velbert beat FSV Duisburg 3-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg in Duisburg.