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FSV Duisburg vs Meerbusch — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Meerbusch
Meerbusch
9/4/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 6Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

FSV Duisburg35%
×Draw22%
Meerbusch43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Duisburg
1.70
Meerbusch
1.89

Meerbusch creates 11% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 92 away

creates per match

FSV Duisburg
1.38
Meerbusch
1.61

allows per match

FSV Duisburg
2.17
Meerbusch
2.02

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par
Meerbusch+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

Meerbusch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw
57%
FSV Duisburg or Meerbusch
78%
Draw or Meerbusch
65%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
18%
Meerbusch wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
82%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
51%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
24%
Meerbusch 1+ goals
85%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
56%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
45%
Meerbusch (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

Meerbusch away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.02 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + Meerbusch defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.70

Meerbusch attack 1.61 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more
35%
level
22%
Meerbusch scores more
43%

Meerbusch at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Meerbusch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FSV Duisburg vs Meerbusch

Meerbusch beat FSV Duisburg 5-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg in Duisburg.