FSV Duisburg 0–3 Germania Ratingen: Result & Stats

FSV Duisburg

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Germania Ratingen

4/30/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 36Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

FSV Duisburg29%

×Draw22%

Germania Ratingen49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV DuisburgExpected goals in this matchGermania Ratingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.01

FSV Duisburg

1.52

Germania Ratingen

2.01

Germania Ratingen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 91 away

1.38

creates per match

1.85

2.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FSV Duisburg

1.38

Germania Ratingen

1.85

allows per match

FSV Duisburg

2.17

Germania Ratingen

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

Germania Ratingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw

51%

FSV Duisburg or Germania Ratingen

78%

Draw or Germania Ratingen

71%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+

14%

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals

78%

FSV Duisburg 2+ goals

45%

FSV Duisburg 3+ goals

20%

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals

87%

Germania Ratingen 2+ goals

59%

Germania Ratingen 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

37%

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more

29%

level

22%

Germania Ratingen scores more

49%

Germania Ratingen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff