FShM U19 0–3 Zenit U19: Result & Stats

FShM U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Zenit U19

11/3/2023

Youth Championship · Round 16Luzhniki Pole No.9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FShM U1928%

×Draw21%

Zenit U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FShM U19Expected goals in this matchZenit U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.12

FShM U19

1.52

Zenit U19

2.12

Zenit U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 78 away

1.80

creates per match

2.23

2.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

FShM U19

1.80

Zenit U19

2.23

allows per match

FShM U19

2.00

Zenit U19

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FShM U19+0.00on par

Zenit U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FShM U19 ↓

Zenit U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

FShM U19 or draw

49%

FShM U19 or Zenit U19

79%

Draw or Zenit U19

72%

Winning margin

FShM U19 wins by 2+

13%

Zenit U19 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

FShM U19 1+ goals

78%

FShM U19 2+ goals

45%

FShM U19 3+ goals

20%

Zenit U19 1+ goals

88%

Zenit U19 2+ goals

62%

Zenit U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

FShM U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FShM U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

Zenit U19 away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FShM U19 attack 1.80 + Zenit U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zenit U19 attack 2.23 + FShM U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FShM U19 scores more

28%

level

21%

Zenit U19 scores more

51%

Zenit U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff