Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FShM U19 vs Ural U20 — Youth Championship 2026

FShM U19
FShM U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Ural U20
Ural U20
8/4/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 5Luzhniki Pole No.9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FShM U1948%
×Draw22%
Ural U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FShM U19
1.93
Ural U20
1.50

FShM U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 99 away

creates per match

FShM U19
1.80
Ural U20
1.01

allows per match

FShM U19
2.00
Ural U20
2.06

finishing

FShM U19+0.00on par
Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FShM U19 ↓

Ural U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FShM U19 or draw
70%
FShM U19 or Ural U20
78%
Draw or Ural U20
52%

Winning margin

FShM U19 wins by 2+
27%
Ural U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FShM U19 1+ goals
85%
FShM U19 2+ goals
57%
FShM U19 3+ goals
30%
Ural U20 1+ goals
78%
Ural U20 2+ goals
44%
Ural U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FShM U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Ural U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FShM U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FShM U19 attack 1.80 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.93

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + FShM U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FShM U19 scores more
48%
level
22%
Ural U20 scores more
30%

FShM U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FShM U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: FShM U19 3–2 Ural U20

FShM U19 beat Ural U20 3-2 in Youth Championship on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Luzhniki Pole No.9 in Moskva.