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FShM U19 vs Orenburg U19 — Youth Championship 2026

FShM U19
FShM U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
11/24/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 18Luzhniki Pole No.9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FShM U1956%
×Draw20%
Orenburg U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FShM U19
2.23
Orenburg U19
1.40

FShM U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 38 away

creates per match

FShM U19
1.80
Orenburg U19
0.79

allows per match

FShM U19
2.00
Orenburg U19
2.66

finishing

FShM U19+0.00on par
Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FShM U19 ↓

Orenburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FShM U19 or draw
76%
FShM U19 or Orenburg U19
80%
Draw or Orenburg U19
44%

Winning margin

FShM U19 wins by 2+
34%
Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FShM U19 1+ goals
89%
FShM U19 2+ goals
65%
FShM U19 3+ goals
38%
Orenburg U19 1+ goals
75%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
41%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FShM U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FShM U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FShM U19 attack 1.80 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.23

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + FShM U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FShM U19 scores more
56%
level
20%
Orenburg U19 scores more
24%

FShM U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FShM U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: FShM U19 2–0 Orenburg U19

FShM U19 beat Orenburg U19 2-0 in Youth Championship on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Luzhniki Pole No.9 in Moskva.