FShM U19 3–3 Fakel U19: Result & Stats

FShM U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Fakel U19

8/18/2023

Youth Championship · Round 7Luzhniki Pole No.9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FShM U1943%

×Draw23%

Fakel U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FShM U19Expected goals in this matchFakel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.56

FShM U19

1.77

Fakel U19

1.56

FShM U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 60 away

1.80

creates per match

1.12

2.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

FShM U19

1.80

Fakel U19

1.12

allows per match

FShM U19

2.00

Fakel U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FShM U19+0.00on par

Fakel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FShM U19 ↓

Fakel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FShM U19 or draw

66%

FShM U19 or Fakel U19

77%

Draw or Fakel U19

57%

Winning margin

FShM U19 wins by 2+

23%

Fakel U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FShM U19 1+ goals

83%

FShM U19 2+ goals

53%

FShM U19 3+ goals

26%

Fakel U19 1+ goals

79%

Fakel U19 2+ goals

46%

Fakel U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FShM U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FShM U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

Fakel U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FShM U19 attack 1.80 + Fakel U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Fakel U19 attack 1.12 + FShM U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FShM U19 scores more

43%

level

23%

Fakel U19 scores more

34%

FShM U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FShM U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff