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FS Třebíč vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

FS Třebíč
FS Třebíč
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
4/12/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 21Hrište Fotbalová škola Třebíč

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FS Třebíč56%
×Draw20%
Slavoj Polná24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FS Třebíč
2.24
Slavoj Polná
1.42

FS Třebíč creates 58% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 54 away

creates per match

FS Třebíč
1.27
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

FS Třebíč
1.87
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

FS Třebíč+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FS Třebíč ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FS Třebíč or draw
76%
FS Třebíč or Slavoj Polná
80%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
44%

Winning margin

FS Třebíč wins by 2+
34%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FS Třebíč 1+ goals
89%
FS Třebíč 2+ goals
65%
FS Třebíč 3+ goals
38%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
76%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
41%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FS Třebíč (draw refunded)
70%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FS Třebíč at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FS Třebíč attack 1.27 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.24

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + FS Třebíč defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FS Třebíč scores more
56%
level
20%
Slavoj Polná scores more
24%

FS Třebíč at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FS Třebíč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FS Třebíč vs Slavoj Polná

FS Třebíč beat Slavoj Polná 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Hrište Fotbalová škola Třebíč in Třebíč.