Frýdlant vs Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Frýdlant

CANC

13:30

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

4/4/2021

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 14Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Frýdlant66%

×Draw19%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrýdlantExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Olympia Bruntál

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.05

Frýdlant

2.34

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

1.05

Frýdlant creates 123% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 45 away

1.98

creates per match

0.89

1.21

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Frýdlant

1.98

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

0.89

allows per match

Frýdlant

1.21

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw

84%

Frýdlant or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

81%

Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

34%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+

43%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals

90%

Frýdlant 2+ goals

67%

Frýdlant 3+ goals

41%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals

65%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals

28%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)

81%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.98 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.34

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Frýdlant defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Frýdlant scores more

66%

level

19%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more

16%

Frýdlant at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Frýdlant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff