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Frýdlant vs Frýdek-Místek — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Frýdlant
Frýdlant
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Frýdek-Místek
Frýdek-Místek
5/6/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 27Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Frýdlant35%
×Draw23%
Frýdek-Místek42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdlant
1.54
Frýdek-Místek
1.71

Frýdek-Místek creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

creates per match

Frýdlant
1.50
Frýdek-Místek
1.48

allows per match

Frýdlant
1.94
Frýdek-Místek
1.58

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Frýdek-Místek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw
58%
Frýdlant or Frýdek-Místek
77%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek
65%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+
17%
Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals
79%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
45%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
20%
Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals
82%
Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals
51%
Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)
45%
Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Frýdek-Místek away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.50 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.48 + Frýdlant defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Frýdlant scores more
35%
level
23%
Frýdek-Místek scores more
42%

Frýdek-Místek at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Frýdlant 2–2 Frýdek-Místek

Frýdlant and Frýdek-Místek drew 2-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant in Frýdlant nad Ostravicí.