Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Frýdlant vs Dětmarovice — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Frýdlant
Frýdlant
FT
4 – 2
Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
8/28/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 5Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Frýdlant70%
×Draw16%
Dětmarovice14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdlant
2.77
Dětmarovice
1.16

Frýdlant creates 139% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 18 away

creates per match

Frýdlant
1.98
Dětmarovice
1.11

allows per match

Frýdlant
1.21
Dětmarovice
3.56

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par
Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Dětmarovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw
86%
Frýdlant or Dětmarovice
84%
Draw or Dětmarovice
30%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+
50%
Dětmarovice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals
94%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
76%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
51%
Dětmarovice 1+ goals
69%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
32%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)
84%
Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

Dětmarovice away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.98 + Dětmarovice defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.77

Dětmarovice attack 1.11 + Frýdlant defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Frýdlant scores more
70%
level
16%
Dětmarovice scores more
14%

Frýdlant at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Frýdlant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frýdlant vs Dětmarovice

Frýdlant beat Dětmarovice 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant in Frýdlant nad Ostravicí.