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Frýdlant vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Frýdlant
Frýdlant
CANC
13:30
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
3/13/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 11Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Frýdlant59%
×Draw20%
Beskyd Frenštát21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdlant
2.17
Beskyd Frenštát
1.22

Frýdlant creates 78% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 60 away

creates per match

Frýdlant
1.98
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Frýdlant
1.21
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw
79%
Frýdlant or Beskyd Frenštát
80%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
41%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+
36%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals
89%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
64%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
36%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
70%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
34%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)
74%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.98 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.17

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Frýdlant defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Frýdlant scores more
59%
level
20%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
21%

Frýdlant at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Frýdlant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frýdlant vs Beskyd Frenštát — Match Preview

Frýdlant face Beskyd Frenštát on March 13, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie F fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Frýdlant host Beskyd Frenštát at Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.