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Beskyd Frenštát vs Frýdlant — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
FT
0 – 0
Frýdlant
Frýdlant
10/17/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 12Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát40%
×Draw22%
Frýdlant38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
1.81
Frýdlant
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 49 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Frýdlant
1.69

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Frýdlant
2.04

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Frýdlant+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Frýdlant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
62%
Beskyd Frenštát or Frýdlant
78%
Draw or Frýdlant
60%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
21%
Frýdlant wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
84%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
54%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
27%
Frýdlant 1+ goals
83%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
52%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
52%
Frýdlant (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Frýdlant away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Frýdlant defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.81

Frýdlant attack 1.69 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
40%
level
22%
Frýdlant scores more
38%

Beskyd Frenštát at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beskyd Frenštát will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Beskyd Frenštát 0–0 Frýdlant

Beskyd Frenštát and Frýdlant drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Na Nivách in Frenštát pod Radhoštěm.