Frýdlant 2–1 Baník Ostrava II: Result & Stats

Frýdlant

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Baník Ostrava II

11/11/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 15Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Frýdlant25%

×Draw22%

Baník Ostrava II53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrýdlantExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

2.01

Frýdlant

1.32

Baník Ostrava II

2.01

Baník Ostrava II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 65 away

1.50

creates per match

2.08

1.94

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Frýdlant

1.50

Baník Ostrava II

2.08

allows per match

Frýdlant

1.94

Baník Ostrava II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Baník Ostrava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw

47%

Frýdlant or Baník Ostrava II

78%

Draw or Baník Ostrava II

75%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+

11%

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals

73%

Frýdlant 2+ goals

38%

Frýdlant 3+ goals

15%

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals

87%

Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals

59%

Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)

32%

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.50 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.08 + Frýdlant defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Frýdlant scores more

25%

level

22%

Baník Ostrava II scores more

53%

Baník Ostrava II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff