Frýdek-Místek 6–1 Vysočina Jihlava II

Frýdek-Místek

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vysočina Jihlava II

S. Byrtus 83'

D. Nieslanik 73', 63'

M. Velner 65'

P. Ruby 59' (pen)

T. Hykel 29'

M. Walter 61'

6/11/2022

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 32Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Frýdek-Místek67%

×Draw19%

Vysočina Jihlava II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frýdek-MístekExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.91

Frýdek-Místek

2.21

Vysočina Jihlava II

0.91

Frýdek-Místek creates 143% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 23 away

1.69

creates per match

0.70

1.12

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek

1.69

Vysočina Jihlava II

0.70

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek

1.12

Vysočina Jihlava II

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek or draw

86%

Frýdek-Místek or Vysočina Jihlava II

81%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II

33%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+

43%

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals

89%

Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals

65%

Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals

38%

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals

60%

Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals

23%

Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)

82%

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.69 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.21

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Frýdek-Místek scores more

67%

level

19%

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more

14%

Frýdek-Místek at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

J. Massaniec

29'

T. Hykel

38'

M. Fila

46'

T. Bulicka← T. Bulicka

53'

A. Krejci

59'

P. RubyPenalty

60'

T. Hykel← D. Nieslanik

61'

M. Walter

63'

D. Nieslanik

64'

D. Krajco← D. Krajco

65'

M. Velner

70'

M. Kovarik← L. Raab

73'

D. Nieslanik

75'

A. Savi

75'

T. Barkov

76'

S. Byrtus← S. Byrtus

76'

J. Martinik← J. Martinik

78'

O. Horak← O. Horak

78'

J. Pekarek← J. Pekarek

83'

S. Byrtus

90+1'

M. Lokvenc← M. Lokvenc

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff