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Frýdek-Místek vs Vyškov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Frýdek-Místek
Frýdek-Místek
CANC
09:15
Vyškov
Vyškov
3/21/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 12Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Frýdek-Místek44%
×Draw26%
Vyškov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdek-Místek
1.50
Vyškov
1.19

Frýdek-Místek creates 26% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 16 away

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek
1.69
Vyškov
1.25

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek
1.12
Vyškov
1.31

finishing

Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek or draw
70%
Frýdek-Místek or Vyškov
74%
Draw or Vyškov
56%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+
22%
Vyškov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals
78%
Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals
44%
Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals
19%
Vyškov 1+ goals
70%
Vyškov 2+ goals
33%
Vyškov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)
60%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.69 + Vyškov defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vyškov attack 1.25 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Frýdek-Místek scores more
44%
level
26%
Vyškov scores more
30%

Frýdek-Místek at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frýdek-Místek face Vyškov (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Frýdek-Místek hosting Vyškov. Match starts March 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Frýdek-Místek host Vyškov at Stadion Stovky.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.