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Frýdek-Místek vs Blansko — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Frýdek-Místek
Frýdek-Místek
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Blansko
Blansko
11/8/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 13Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Frýdek-Místek53%
×Draw23%
Blansko24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdek-Místek
1.83
Blansko
1.15

Frýdek-Místek creates 59% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 77 away

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek
1.69
Blansko
1.17

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek
1.12
Blansko
1.97

finishing

Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par
Blansko+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek ↓

Blansko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek or draw
76%
Frýdek-Místek or Blansko
77%
Draw or Blansko
47%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+
30%
Blansko wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals
84%
Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals
54%
Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals
28%
Blansko 1+ goals
68%
Blansko 2+ goals
32%
Blansko 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)
69%
Blansko (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Blansko away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.97 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.69 + Blansko defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.83

Blansko attack 1.17 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Frýdek-Místek scores more
53%
level
23%
Blansko scores more
24%

Frýdek-Místek at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frýdek-Místek vs Blansko

Frýdek-Místek beat Blansko 3-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Stovky in Frýdek-Místek.